From Mayor to Prime Minister? Burnham's Make-or-Break Byelection Gamble

16 May 2026 | London, England

LONDON – It was a minute or so into his BBC interview on Friday morning, after being asked about "moves" to remove Keir Starmer, that Steve Reed ran out of patience. "There is no contest," he interrupted. "'Moves' mean nothing. People need 81 nominations to stand against the prime minister."

The housing secretary, a close ally of Starmer, was right: no one has formally challenged the prime minister, let alone ousted him.

But the reality is stark. In one short but tumultuous week, Starmer has shed so much authority that many of his MPs – let alone the wider public – view him as, in effect, an interim leader, still in office only until the necessary arrangements can be made for a replacement.

"Why Are We Even Doing This?": The Week That Shook Labour

"At several points this week I've felt like I was going mad," said one Labour official loyal to Starmer. "Why are we even doing this? You can't go around saying 'the PM has to leave, and we don't know who will replace him'. It's wildly irresponsible."

That was, however, more or less how the week's events began. On Saturday, two days after Labour received a drubbing in elections across England, Scotland and Wales, one of Starmer's lesser-known MPs did her best to light the spark on a contest. Catherine West began by saying that if no one in the cabinet was willing to seek the 81 nominations needed to kickstart a leadership race, she would. This became an email to Labour colleagues asking Starmer to step down.

Eccentric it may have been, but it heralded three days of what could be termed the phoney war to get rid of Starmer, as the various camps marshalled their forces and began some exploratory skirmishes.

The Resignations: Streeting Steps Back, Burnham Steps Forward

On Monday a handful of junior frontbenchers, mainly allied to Wes Streeting, quit government. That evening, several cabinet ministers asked the PM to think about a departure timetable.

By Tuesday the resignations had been upgraded to junior ministers, most notably Jess Phillips. Wednesday saw an intense effort by Downing Street to essentially dare Streeting into a formal challenge. Starmer agreed to see his then health secretary for a humiliatingly short meeting, while the PM's allies briefed furiously that Streeting had nowhere near the 81 MPs needed and had "bottled it".

It took until Thursday for events to start coming into focus. At lunchtime, Streeting released a long and damning letter of resignation from the cabinet, calling for a leadership contest with a "broad" field of candidates – a de facto acknowledgment that he lacked the MP numbers.

In one of the most bizarre turns of the wheel, this was also the day that West told the BBC that if a contest did happen, she might support Starmer anyway.

About four hours after Streeting resigned, when just about every other Labour MP in the north-west of England had denied they would stand down in Andy Burnham's favour, one did. Josh Simons, a 2024-intake Labour MP, has yoked his fortunes closely to the Greater Manchester mayor.

Burnham's Path to No 10: A Bold Plan with Several Hurdles

For Burnham supporters, the way ahead seemed clear. Their man would be selected for the seat, use a strong personal brand built during nearly a decade as mayor to overcome Reform, and be back in the Commons. The idea, some allies said, would be to immediately challenge Starmer and be in No 10 before the Commons went into summer recess in July.

It is a bold plan but one with several obvious hurdles. If Burnham loses the byelection to Reform, his ambitions would seem at an end, his supposed superpower – "only I can stop Nigel Farage becoming prime minister" – shattered. For good measure, his departure as mayor has the potential to deliver Greater Manchester to Reform as well.

Even getting into parliament might not be the end of it. For all that it may at times be based on a mix of braggadocio, desperation and narked fury, Starmer's allies continue to insist that he would contest any challenge and call on the Labour membership, who make the final decision, to stick with stability.

Keir Starmer's allies continue to insist he would contest any challenge, despite nearly 100 MPs calling for him to stand aside.

Streetings's Moment: "He Messed It Up"

Such an approach does thus far appear to have seen off Streeting. It is difficult to understate how much this has been a source of comfort to Starmer's supporters in an otherwise painful week.

"This was Wes's moment and he messed it up," one said. "Everyone has been expecting him to go for it more or less since we got into office, and this was his chance. And he got 40 MPs. It's embarrassing."

Things remain hugely tricky for the PM despite marathon efforts by allies including Darren Jones, who spent six hours on Wednesday evening trying to talk MPs down.

Starmer faces very obvious constraints, not least the fact that, as shown by a generally pedestrian "make or break" speech on Monday, he remains a poor communicator with few clearly articulated ideas who is widely disliked by voters.

The Makerfield Crucible: Burnham vs Farage

Andy Burnham will push to become prime minister in time to address Labour's autumn party conference in Liverpool, his supporters have said. The Greater Manchester mayor cleared his first hurdle to becoming the candidate in the Makerfield byelection on Friday when Labour's ruling body gave him permission to stand for the seat.

If confirmed as Labour's choice, he will need to win a difficult contest for the Greater Manchester seat in mid to late June. Support for Reform UK surged in the area at the local elections – attracting about 50% of Makerfield's local-council votes on May 7th.

Prediction markets give Labour a 55% chance of holding the seat, with Reform at 43%. But with Burnham as the candidate, polling suggests Labour would narrowly beat Reform by 45% to 43% – compared with another Labour candidate attracting just 27% versus 53% for Reform.

Neal Lawson, a close adviser to Burnham, said he believed the Greater Manchester mayor had unique electoral appeal in that he "appeals to both Green voters and Reform voters, and no one else does it."

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