Iran Is Collapsing Financially: Trump Claims $500m Daily Loss as Ceasefire Extended and Ground Invasion Looms

22 April 2026 | Washington / Tehran / Global Markets

Washington, D.C. – The clock was ticking toward midnight. The ceasefire was hours from death. And then, Donald Trump blinked – just enough to keep the door open, but not enough to lower the temperature.

The president posted on Truth Social about 10 minutes ago, claiming Iran is "collapsing financially" and losing $500 million every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. "They want the Strait opened immediately – Starving for cash! Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!" Trump wrote.

Hours before the ceasefire was due to expire, Trump announced he would extend it at Pakistan's request while awaiting a "unified proposal" from Tehran – even as the US military maintained its blockade of Iranian ports. The move came as the White House put on hold Vice-President JD Vance's planned trip to Pakistan for a second round of truce talks, with Iran balking at further discussions.

"Iran Is Collapsing Financially": Trump's Social Media Barrage

Trump has posted about Iran several times on Tuesday. In an earlier post, he wrote: "People approached me four days ago, saying, 'Sir, Iran wants to open up the Strait, immediately.' But if we do that, there can never be a Deal with Iran, unless we blow up the rest of their Country, their leaders included!"

The rhetoric was vintage Trump – hyperbolic, threatening, and impossible to ignore. But behind the bluster, the strategic picture was shifting.

Pakistan's President Shehbaz Sharif thanked Trump for extending the ceasefire, saying it would allow ongoing diplomatic efforts to proceed. In a post on X, Sharif said he was expressing gratitude "on my personal behalf and on behalf of Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir" for Trump's "gracious acceptance" of Pakistan's request.

But Iran's position remained unchanged: the US must end the blockade of its ports for negotiations to resume. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the blockade will continue, stating that "in a matter of days, Kharg Island storage will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in."

Ground Invasion: The Doomsday Scenario

It is the doomsday scenario that Donald Trump repeatedly swore he would never countenance: putting boots on the ground in a deployment that could embroil the US in a Middle East "forever war." Now, with the ceasefire hanging by a thread, the chances of the president breaking that pledge seem to be rising.

Despite increasing hopes for an end to the conflict over the past two weeks, the Trump administration has deployed more forces to the region. By the time the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and its Marine Corps task force arrive at the end of the month, more than 10,000 additional troops will have been sent since hostilities were paused on 8 April.

"If we pay more attention to what President Trump does rather than what he says, then a ground invasion is quite likely," said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. "We have not seen him deploying significant military assets to any theatre and ending up not using it. There is a clear risk of mission creep here."

Ashkan Hashemipour, an Iran analyst at the University of Oxford, noted that Iran has spent 47 years preparing for this moment. "Iran, right now, seems to be doing pretty well in a war that's essentially fought in the skies and in the sea. If it's fought on the ground, they'll be even stronger."

Iran's Defiance: "No, We Are Waiting for Them"

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who led two rounds of negotiations for Iran before they were torpedoed by military action, was aggressively defiant when NBC asked him whether Iran feared a US ground invasion.

"No, we are waiting for them," Araghchi said, "because we are confident that we can confront them, and that would be a big disaster for them."

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliament speaker who has emerged as the chief Iranian negotiator, said on Monday that the Islamic regime was getting ready to deploy "new cards on the battlefield" if fighting resumed.

The confidence stems from a foundational experience: the 1980-88 war with Iraq, which Iran ultimately repelled despite being outgunned. "That war was a foundational experience for the Iranian hardliners and conservatives," said Nader Hashemi, a professor at Georgetown University. "From their perspective, what's happening now proves them absolutely correct."

Asymmetric Warfare: Iran's Guerrilla Strategy

Militarily and technologically outmatched by the US, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would likely depend on asymmetric tactics leaning heavily on guerrilla warfare in the event of a US land invasion.

The IRGC has been divided into 31 provincial units roughly in line with the country's 31 provinces, thereby overriding the need for a centralized command that could be eliminated or disrupted by US or Israeli strikes.

"The idea is to try and break Iran into a mosaic, with each mosaic defending itself," said Saeid Golkar, a politics professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.

A vital role would also be played by Iran's conventional armed forces, the Artesh, which has been broken down into rapid action units based on 12 regional headquarters – again freeing local commanders from central command. The goal: force US forces to fight two wars simultaneously – "one conventional, one unconventional."

The Basij: Human Waves or Hollow Force?

The IRGC-led unconventional war would likely rely on support from the Basij, a youth volunteer force that became renowned for "human wave" attacks on Iraqi forces in the 1980-88 war, driven by a fervent revolutionary desire to attain Shia "martyrdom."

But Golkar played down the militia's military significance, describing it as an "instrument of domestic repression" and doubting many members' willingness to fight, citing the decline of religious devoutness in Iran and widespread unhappiness with the regime.

The Islands Option: Boots on the Ground, But Where?

With Trump's focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, boots on the ground could – at least initially – fall short of an incursion onto the mainland, and be limited instead to occupying one or more of several islands in the Gulf off Iran's southern coast. But such deployments would leave US troops vulnerable to missile and drone attacks.

The Iranian regime is also likely to respond by pressuring its proxy Houthi allies in Yemen to close the Bab al-Mandab shipping lane between the Red Sea and Indian Ocean, which would cause global energy prices to rocket.

"The reality is there is no military solution to reopen the strait," Vaez said. "Even in a scenario that [Trump] occupies the entire southern shore of Iran and all the Gulf islands that Iran has, Iran will still be able to fire drones from much farther inland to disrupt traffic on the strait."

Markets Mixed, Oil Eases, Pacific Reels

Asian shares were mixed in early trading, while oil prices eased on hopes the US and Iran may resume talks. Brent crude edged 0.2% lower but remained above $98 a barrel after settling at $98.48, up 3.1% on Tuesday. US benchmark crude fell 0.4% to $89.29.

Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.5%, while South Korea's Kospi edged 0.2% lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 1.3%, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 dipped 0.9%.

Global inflation this year looks set to accelerate to 4.4% from 4.1% in 2025, according to the IMF, which had earlier thought inflation would slow to 3.8%.

Far-flung Pacific nations are reeling from the impact of the global fuel crisis. Aid agencies warn that prices for diesel, petrol, and kerosene have risen by as much as 70% in Papua New Guinea since the start of the Iran war. Pacific Island nations are the most reliant on diesel for power generation worldwide.

In Kiribati, people are struggling to get to work, school, and access healthcare. Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands have both declared states of emergency. The Cook Islands, Nauru, and Papua New Guinea have moved to subsidize or cap rising fuel costs. In Fiji, ministers agreed to take a 20% pay cut to help offset fuel costs.

War Death Toll: 5,700+ and Climbing

Since the war started, fighting has killed at least 3,375 people in Iran and more than 2,290 in Lebanon, the Associated Press reports. Additionally, 23 people have died in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states. Fifteen Israeli soldiers in Lebanon and 13 US service members throughout the region have been killed.

The numbers are staggering. And they are climbing.

What Comes Next?

The ceasefire has been extended – but not the hope that came with it. The blockade continues. The troops are flowing. And Iran is waiting.

"No, we are waiting for them," Araghchi said. The question is whether Trump will give Iran the fight it says it wants – or whether diplomacy can somehow reassert itself before the first boot hits Iranian soil.

"Any kind of ground invasion would probably entail significant casualties on the US side, which is something that the Iranians actually would like to see," Vaez said.

The next few days will determine whether the ceasefire holds, whether talks resume, or whether the region plunges into a ground war that neither side can easily win – but both sides claim they are ready to fight.

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