China's Semiconductor Ambitions and the Global Technology Race 2-Sept-2023

The recent surge in Chinese chipmakers' shares and Huawei's smartphone developments underscore China's determination to become a global leader in technology and semiconductor manufacturing, despite facing U.S. sanctions. Huawei's launch of the Mate60 Pro, featuring a self-developed central processing unit (CPU), has ignited speculation about China's advances in chip-making technology. The shares of companies like Guangdong Leadyo IC Testing, Biwin Storage Technology, and Cambricon Technologies Corp surged following the Mate60 Pro announcement, suggesting investor optimism. This development comes as China continues its efforts to increase its presence in the semiconductor industry. Huawei's flagship smartphone, which can run on 5G despite being marketed as a 4G device, sold out immediately upon release. The phone is powered by an octa-core HiSilicon 5nm chipset known as Kirin 9000s, which raises questions about its origin. Reports suggest that Huawei may have sourced these chips from existing inventory or, potentially, from a collaboration with Semiconductor Manufacturing South China Corp (SMSC), a subsidiary of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). SMSC has been working on advanced chip manufacturing using immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography.

While the U.S. has imposed export controls to limit China's access to advanced semiconductors, it appears that Chinese engineers and students have found workarounds to these restrictions, particularly in acquiring electronic design automation (EDA) software. EDA software is crucial for designing advanced semiconductors, and students at Tsinghua University are reported to be using popular EDA providers like Cadence and Synopsys through various channels. This ability to access and use EDA software has raised concerns about potential dual-use or military end-use research conducted by these students, considering Tsinghua University's involvement in defense-related projects. The U.S. sanctions, primarily targeting cutting-edge semiconductor development, may not fully achieve their intended goals. Much of China's military technology relies on mature node chips (28nm and above), which are not directly impacted by the sanctions. This has allowed China to bolster its domestic semiconductor industry, particularly in the mature node market.
China's semiconductor ambitions have received significant financial backing, with estimates suggesting that Huawei alone is receiving substantial funding from the Chinese government to bolster its chip-making efforts. As the U.S.-China technology competition intensifies, questions arise about the efficacy of export controls and their ability to curtail China's semiconductor advancements. While the U.S. seeks to maintain its technological edge, China's determination to become self-reliant in critical technologies like semiconductors remains steadfast. In this dynamic landscape, the role of allies like Japan and South Korea in promoting democratic values and technological development gains importance. These countries, known for their innovation and technological prowess, have the potential to lead the charge in ensuring that new and emerging technologies are aligned with democratic principles.

As the world faces economic challenges exacerbated by the pandemic, comprehensive technological development becomes crucial, especially for developing nations. Bridging the digital divide and providing access to technology resources are essential steps toward a more equitable global digital ecosystem. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) also plays a significant role in meeting the technological and infrastructural demands of developing nations. While controversial, the BRI highlights the need for democracies to offer alternative solutions that promote liberal ideals and ensure a fair and inclusive digital future. In conclusion, the battle for technological supremacy, particularly in semiconductors, continues to shape the global landscape. China's efforts to overcome U.S. sanctions and its ambitions in the semiconductor industry underscore the challenges faced by the United States and its allies in maintaining their technological edge. The path forward involves a delicate balance of export controls, innovation, and promoting democratic values to shape the future of technology on a global scale.